← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Apr 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 65% | 66% | 1.50 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.39 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 13% | 14% | 7.50 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens −1 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Le Havre AC −1 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 44% | 1.89 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 56% | 2.01 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 62' | 🟨 | Jonathan Gradit · Racing Club de Lens |
| 63' | 🟨 | Christopher Operi · Le Havre AC |
| 69' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ruben Aguilar · Racing Club de Lens |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Emmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bayo · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| coach days |
| 1497.00 |
| 675.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1753.26 | 1561.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.36 | -30.30 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| league points | 42.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 0.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.93 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.71 | 27.01 |
| state index | 0.41 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.03 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.09 |