← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 31, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 53% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Nantes win | 19% | 17% | 5.33 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nantes −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| OGC Nice −0.75 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 52% | 1.62 | fair |
| Over | 40% | 48% | 2.43 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 51' | 🟨 | Nicolas Cozza · Nantes |
| 52' | 🟨 | Eray Cömert · Nantes |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jordan Lotomba · OGC Nice |
| 58' | 🟨 | Pedro Chirivella · Nantes |
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 78' | 🟨 | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Coco · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| coach days |
| 304.00 |
| 30.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 3.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1710.39 | 1520.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.20 | -29.70 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 43.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 14.71 | 14.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | 0.17 | -0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.36 | 28.15 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 0.98 |