← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Mar 30, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 47% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
| Reims win | 27% | 27% | 3.64 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.66 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.5 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.69 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.28 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Reda Khadra · Reims |
| 55' | ⚽ | Joseph Okumu · Reims |
| 65' | ⚽ | Ernest Nuamah · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 71' | 🟨 | Duje Ćaleta-Car · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 76' | 🟨 | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 78' | 🟨 | Amir Richardson · Reims |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 8 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days |
| 150.00 |
| 546.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1684.26 | 1649.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.91 | 18.39 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 34.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 13.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.65 | 0.71 |
| solidity v1 | -0.50 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.75 | 25.45 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.25 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 1.71 |