← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 29, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 45% | 49% | 2.21 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.31 | fair |
| Racing Club de Lens win | 26% | 24% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC −0.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Racing Club de Lens −0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 51% | 1.76 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 49% | 2.18 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 35' | 🟨 | Facundo Medina · Racing Club de Lens |
| 52' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 60' | ⚽ | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Edon Zhegrova · Lille OSC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · Racing Club de Lens |
| 78' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Racing Club de Lens |
| 88' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Lille OSC |
| 88' | 🟨 | David da Costa · Racing Club de Lens |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Racing Club de Lens |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 119.00 | 1489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.36 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1809.44 | 1828.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.82 | -13.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.07 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 66.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 12.33 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 0.74 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 26.90 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.81 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.94 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.82 | 1.55 |