← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: H. Ben El Hadj
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 55% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.86 | fair |
| Metz win | 20% | 15% | 4.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Metz −0.75 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Reims −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 14' | ⚽ | Arthur Atta · Metz |
| 20' | 🟨 | Christophe Herelle · Metz |
| 21' | 🟨 | Junya Ito · Reims |
| 42' | 🟨 | Cheick Tidiane Sabaly · Metz |
| 51' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 79' | ⚽ | Junya Ito · Reims |
| 82' | 🟨 | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alexandre Oukidja · Metz |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibou Sane · Metz |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reims | Metz |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 533.00 |
| 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1643.73 | 1565.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.51 | 12.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.30 | 63.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 35.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -0.04 | -0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.00 | 24.46 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.24 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.64 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.49 |