← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 17, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 35% | 34% | 2.82 | fair |
| Clermont win | 35% | 35% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Clermont +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 60% | 1.65 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 40% | 2.37 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Clermont |
| 30' | 🟨 | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
| 30' | 🟥 | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
| 31' | 🟨 | Habib Keita · Clermont |
| 34' | 🟨 | Oussama Targhalline · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Gautier Lloris · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Clermont |
| 47' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 58' | 🟨 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Oussama Targhalline |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel-Montpied |
| 66' | 🟥 | Oussama Targhalline · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 4277.00 |
| 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1544.86 | 1587.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.22 | -20.28 |
| eye test v1 | -0.20 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.10 | -0.31 |
| solidity v1 | -1.76 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.90 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.17 | 1.87 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.05 |