← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Fri, Mar 15, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 37% | 39% | 2.73 | value: +6% |
| Toulouse FC win | 34% | 29% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Toulouse FC +0 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +9% |
| Over | 48% | 42% | 2.04 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 37' | 🟨 | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 43' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Clinton Mata · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 53' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Vincent Sierro · Toulouse FC |
| 77' | ⚽ | Rayan Cherki · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 81' | ⚽ | Jake O'Brien · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 288.00 |
| 135.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1645.35 | 1673.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.09 | 27.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 29.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.12 | -0.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.98 | 28.82 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 1.61 |