← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 10, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 65% | 71% | 1.50 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 20% | 16% | 4.88 | fair |
| Reims win | 15% | 13% | 6.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 62% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 38% | 2.46 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marshall Munetsi · Reims |
| 17' | ⚽ (og) | Yunis Abdelhamid · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Reims |
| 42' | 🟨 | Manuel Ugarte · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oumar Diakité · Reims |
| 54' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Junya Ito · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| coach days |
| 253.00 |
| 526.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1918.84 | 1636.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.55 | -25.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.90 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.87 | 0.61 |
| league points | 55.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 8.67 | 7.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.71 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.38 | 26.07 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.43 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.10 | 1.77 |