← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 47% | 48% | 2.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.67 | fair |
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 26% | 24% | 3.77 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace −0.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 50% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 46% | 50% | 2.11 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 34' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Sissoko · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 47' | ⚽ (pen) | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 66' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | Ismael Doukouré · Montpellier |
| 83' | ⚽ | Emmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 84' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Emegha · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 87' | ⚽ | Arnaud Nordin · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | RC Strasbourg Alsace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 |
| coach days |
| 396.00 |
| 246.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.73 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1608.81 | 1598.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.68 | -48.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| league points | 23.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 7.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| solidity v1 | -0.05 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 22.99 |
| state index | 0.04 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.42 | 1.48 |