← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Mar 3, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 43% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 28% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Toulouse FC +0.25 | 50% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 59% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Khéphren Thuram · OGC Nice |
| 8' | ⚽ | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 45' | 🟨 | Logan Costa · Toulouse FC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 65' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Yann Gboho · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days |
| 276.00 |
| 276.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1645.68 | 1713.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.19 | -23.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.50 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| league points | 26.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 6.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.08 | 25.82 |
| state index | 0.29 | 0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.20 |