← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reims win | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 29% | 30% | 3.40 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims +0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
| Le Havre AC +0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mohamed Daramy · Reims |
| 66' | 🟨 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
| 66' | 🟥 | Thomas Foket · Reims |
| 73' | 🟨 | Thibault De Smet · Reims |
| 74' | 🟨 | Loic Négo · Le Havre AC |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Abdoulaye Touré · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Gorgelin · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Mohamed Daramy · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 634.00 | 512.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.05 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1635.52 | 1692.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.58 | -10.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| league points | 24.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.92 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | 0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -0.55 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.00 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.21 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.39 |