← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Feb 24, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 35% | 33% | 2.72 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 34% | 36% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.23 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +0 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 65% | 1.72 | value: +12% |
| Over | 43% | 35% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Mahdi Camara · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Mahdi Camara · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Mahdi Camara · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Frédéric Guilbert · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrey Santos · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rabby Nzingoula · RC Strasbourg Alsace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 21 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Meinau |
| coach days |
| 238.00 |
| 419.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1614.00 | 1704.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.66 | 24.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 65.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.48 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.33 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 23.23 | 26.94 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.99 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.46 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 0.99 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.69 | 1.68 |