← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Feb 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Frappart
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 46% | 48% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Clermont win | 26% | 27% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Clermont +0.5 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0.5 | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 56% | 57% | 1.72 | fair |
| Over | 44% | 43% | 2.22 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 9 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Gabriel-Montpied |