← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Jan 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 38% | 36% | 2.54 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 31% | 32% | 3.25 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Le Havre AC +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 64% | 61% | 1.52 | fair |
| Over | 36% | 39% | 2.69 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ (pen) | Emmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre AC |
| 17' | 🟨 | Panos Katseris · FC Lorient |
| 26' | 🟨 | Étienne Youte Kinkoue · Le Havre AC |
| 33' | ⚽ | Imrân Louza · FC Lorient |
| 36' | 🟨 | Théo Le Bris · FC Lorient |
| 42' | 🟨 | Julien Ponceau · FC Lorient |
| 43' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Sabbi · Le Havre AC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Imrân Louza · FC Lorient |
| 48' | 🟨 | Yassine Kechta · Le Havre AC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ayman Kari · FC Lorient |
| 73' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 21 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat |
| 🟨 |
| Christopher Operi · Le Havre AC |
| 85' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bamba · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | André Ayew · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 606.00 | 606.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1593.35 | 1645.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.41 | 18.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.46 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 56.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 12.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 14.08 | 13.91 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | 0.16 |
| solidity v1 | -1.90 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.03 | 25.69 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.35 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.36 |