← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Wed, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 56% | 56% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.80 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 18% | 20% | 5.52 | value: +11% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Lorient −0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.75 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 57% | 1.86 | value: +5% |
| Over | 48% | 43% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 0 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |