← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 56% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.81 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 19% | 20% | 5.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient +0.75 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Olympique de Marseille +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 56% | 1.88 | value: +6% |
| Over | 48% | 44% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 15 | Shots | 18 |
| 9 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat |
| 57' | 🟨 | Renan Lodi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 59' | 🟨 | Samuel Gigot · Olympique de Marseille |
| 62' | 🟨 | Bonke Innocent · FC Lorient |
| 71' | 🟨 | Formose Mendy · FC Lorient |
| 80' | 🟥 | Jonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 557.00 | 100.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1571.54 | 1765.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.67 | 18.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.78 |
| league points | 12.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 7.24 | 3.99 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.18 | 0.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.86 | 27.09 |
| state index | -0.36 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.69 | 1.75 |