← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Dec 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 49% | 50% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.5 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 53% | 1.92 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 47% | 2.01 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Aron Dønnum · Toulouse FC |
| 9' | 🟨 | Tiemoué Bakayoko · FC Lorient |
| 33' | 🟨 | Montassar Talbi · FC Lorient |
| 71' | 🟨 | Julien Ponceau · FC Lorient |
| 72' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Vincent Sierro · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | 🟨 | Benjamin Mendy · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ahmadou Bamba Dieng · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 185.00 | 550.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1621.23 | 1568.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.89 | -9.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.14 | -0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 24.93 | 25.85 |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.15 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.65 |