← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 62% | 62% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Toulouse FC win | 16% | 16% | 6.03 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC −1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Lille OSC −1 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 49% | 1.87 | fair |
| Under | 48% | 51% | 2.04 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Leny Yoro · Lille OSC |
| 38' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Lille OSC |
| 47' | 🟨 | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 62' | 🟨 | Stijn Spierings · Toulouse FC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Alexsandro Ribeiro · Lille OSC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Cissoko · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rasmus Nicolaisen · Toulouse FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 2 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Toulouse FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | — |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | — |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| coach days | 134.00 | 164.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1796.04 | 1676.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.18 | -14.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.64 |
| league points | 19.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.86 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | 24.57 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.92 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.35 |