← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Nov 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Bollengier
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 48% | 47% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 24% | 26% | 4.05 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Toulouse FC −0.5 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 56% | 1.75 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 44% | 2.18 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Logan Costa · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Niklas Schmidt · Toulouse FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Josué Casimir · Le Havre AC |
| 49' | ⚽ | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 83' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bayo · Le Havre AC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Rassoul Ndiaye · Le Havre AC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bayo · Le Havre AC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Le Havre AC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 157.00 | 522.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1672.69 | 1608.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.48 | -2.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| league points | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.09 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | -1.08 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 24.36 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.03 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.12 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 0.93 |