← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 50% | 59% | 1.94 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 22% | 3.64 | fair |
| Clermont win | 23% | 19% | 4.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Clermont −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +10% |
| Under | 49% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Muhammed Cham-Saračević · Clermont |
| 19' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 22' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 32' | 🟨 | Henrique · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 35' | ⚽ | Yohann Magnin · Clermont |
| 45' | 🟨 | Florent Ogier · Clermont |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Florent Ogier · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 67' | 🟨 | Corentin Tolisso · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.57 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 90' |
| 🟨 |
| Mory Diaw · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 113.00 | 4130.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1714.52 | 1631.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.88 | -26.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.81 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 65.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| league points | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 14.24 | 22.16 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 0.50 |
| solidity v1 | -1.43 | -0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.03 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.39 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.26 | 1.12 |