← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Oct 21, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice win | 41% | 38% | 2.37 | fair |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 30% | 33% | 3.32 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.34 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille −0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 56% | 1.81 | fair |
| Over | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Terem Moffi · OGC Nice |
| 16' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
| 24' | 🟨 | Jérémie Boga · OGC Nice |
| 56' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 75' | 🟨 | Leonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 78' | 🟨 | Leonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 78' | 🟥 | Leonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 79' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amir Murillo · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | OGC Nice | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Riviera |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 142.00 | 50.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.74 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1795.09 | 1801.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.52 | -10.87 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.71 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.60 | 55.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.65 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 14.17 | 13.33 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.85 | 0.73 |
| solidity v1 | 2.02 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.66 |
| state index | 1.22 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.39 | 1.62 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.74 |