← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 8, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Turpin
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 55% | 57% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.00 | value: +7% |
| FC Lorient win | 21% | 16% | 4.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 60% | 1.72 | value: +4% |
| Under | 44% | 40% | 2.23 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient |
| 21' | ⚽ | Ernest Nuamah · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 22' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 54' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient |
| 79' | ⚽ | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 22 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 494.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 2.71 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1718.50 | 1631.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.29 | -29.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | -0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 6.91 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.29 | 0.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.24 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -1.37 | -2.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.33 | 25.70 |
| state index | -0.35 | -0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.14 |