← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Oct 1, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Letexier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Reims win | 50% | 43% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 25% | 3.88 | fair |
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 25% | 32% | 4.05 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Reims −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.5 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.26 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Auguste-Delaune |