← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 24, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC win | 39% | 38% | 2.56 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 30% | 3.10 | fair |
| Clermont win | 30% | 31% | 3.26 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −0.25 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Le Havre AC −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 57% | 1.55 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 43% | 2.61 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Nabil Alioui · Le Havre AC |
| 7' | ⚽ | Mohamed Bayo · Le Havre AC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 45' | ⚽ | Cheick Konate · Clermont |
| 48' | 🟨 | Arouna Sangante · Le Havre AC |
| 50' | 🟨 | Arthur Desmas · Le Havre AC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Shamar Nicholson · Clermont |
| 85' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Le Havre AC | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Océane |
| coach days | 480.00 | 4102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 3.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1575.45 | 1577.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.87 | -49.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 6.76 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | — |
| season ppg | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.26 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.35 | — |
| state index | 0.37 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.44 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.10 | 1.43 |