← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Sep 23, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nantes win | 41% | 37% | 2.36 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 30% | 29% | 3.30 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.39 | value: +17% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Nantes −0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 56% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 44% | 2.08 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · FC Lorient |
| 42' | ⚽ | Matthis Abline · Nantes |
| 46' | ⚽ | Eray Cömert · Nantes |
| 53' | 🟨 | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 55' | ⚽ | Mostafa Mohamed · Nantes |
| 75' | ⚽ | Romain Faivre · FC Lorient |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rémy Descamps · Nantes |
| 83' | ⚽ | Florent Mollet · Nantes |
| 85' | ⚽ | Aiyegun Tosin · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Igor Silva · FC Lorient |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nantes | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau |
| 🟨 |
| Romain Faivre · FC Lorient |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Moses Simon · Nantes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 145.00 | 479.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1545.83 | 1608.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.71 | 13.63 |
| eye test v1 | 0.02 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 6.08 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | -11.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.57 | -0.33 |
| solidity v1 | -0.54 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 25.49 |
| state index | -0.10 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.38 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 0.72 |