← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Sep 3, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 44% | 42% | 2.29 | fair |
| Clermont win | 29% | 30% | 3.31 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Toulouse FC −0.25 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 48% | 1.90 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 52% | 2.01 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Zakaria Aboukhlal · Toulouse FC |
| 14' | ⚽ | Frank Magri · Toulouse FC |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 37' | 🟨 | Bilal Boutobba · Clermont |
| 73' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thijs Dallinga · Toulouse FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mory Diaw · Clermont |
| 90' | ⚽ | Florent Ogier · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 8 |
| 19 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Toulouse FC | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadium de Toulouse |
| coach days | 94.00 | 4081.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1663.22 | 1645.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.09 | -8.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.74 |
| league points | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 6.92 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.48 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.19 | 28.57 |
| state index | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.70 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.95 | 1.61 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.89 | 1.15 |