← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sun, Aug 27, 03:05 PM UTC · ref: W. Delajod
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille OSC win | 50% | 49% | 1.97 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.70 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 24% | 25% | 4.09 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient +0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Lille OSC +0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Over | 49% | 48% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Laurent Abergel · FC Lorient |
| 10' | ⚽ | Julien Ponceau · FC Lorient |
| 15' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Lille OSC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Bafodé Diakité · Lille OSC |
| 49' | 🟨 | Pablo Pagis · FC Lorient |
| 51' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 55' | ⚽ | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 57' | 🟨 | Siriné Doucouré · FC Lorient |
| 62' | ⚽ | Romain Faivre · FC Lorient |
| 67' | ⚽ | Vincent Le Goff · FC Lorient |
| 87' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 22 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Lille OSC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat |
| 🟨 |
| Yusuf Yazıcı · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 452.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1602.78 | 1745.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.01 | 7.94 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.78 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 63.40 |
| rest days | 7.09 | 2.88 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.40 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 1.52 |
| solidity v1 | -0.74 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.48 | 23.72 |
| state index | -0.15 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.17 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.77 | 1.86 |