β Ligue 1 2023-24 Β· Sun, Aug 27, 11:00 AM UTC Β· ref: E. Wattellier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 63% | 73% | 1.55 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.37 | fair |
| Le Havre AC win | 15% | 9% | 6.68 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 β1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Le Havre AC β1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 51% | 56% | 1.92 | value: +7% |
| Under | 49% | 44% | 2.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand