← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Sat, Aug 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 50% | 58% | 1.93 | value: +12% |
| Montpellier win | 26% | 18% | 3.84 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.08 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 63% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 37% | 35% | 2.64 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand