← Ligue 1 2023-24 · Fri, Aug 18, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 55% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.00 | fair |
| Metz win | 21% | 18% | 4.86 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Metz +0.75 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Olympique de Marseille +0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.78 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.15 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Stade Saint-Symphorien |