← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Jun 3, 07:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 81% | 77% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.74 | value: +4% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 7% | 12% | 14.41 | value: +66% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Lille OSC +2.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| ES Troyes AC +2.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 74% | 58% | 1.31 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 42% | 4.00 | value: +67% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 18 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.