← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, Jun 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Léonard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain FC win | 73% | 79% | 1.32 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 15% | 15% | 6.50 | fair |
| Clermont win | 12% | 6% | 8.50 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −1.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC −1.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 73% | 76% | 1.32 | fair |
| Under | 27% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Sergio Ramos · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 21' | ⚽ (pen) | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 24' | ⚽ | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
| 28' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 45' | ⚽ | Mehdi Zeffane · Clermont |
| 63' | ⚽ | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 76' | 🟨 | Danilo Pereira · Paris Saint-Germain FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateusz Wieteska · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Paris Saint-Germain FC | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Parc des Princes |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 337.00 | 3989.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1925.48 | 1666.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.42 | 26.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 85.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 91.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.30 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.86 | -0.07 |
| solidity v1 | -0.30 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 27.90 |
| state index | 0.99 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.78 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 1.36 |