← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Toulouse FC win | 45% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| AJ Auxerre win | 30% | 28% | 3.39 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.97 | value: +10% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Toulouse FC −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| AJ Auxerre −0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 61% | 48% | 1.60 | fair |
| Under | 39% | 52% | 2.49 | value: +30% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand