← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 40% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| OGC Nice win | 33% | 35% | 2.94 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| OGC Nice −0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Montpellier −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.21 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 17' | ⚽ (pen) | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · OGC Nice |
| 63' | 🟨 | Hicham Boudaoui · OGC Nice |
| 67' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 79' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Laborde · OGC Nice |
| 88' | 🟨 | Pablo Rosario · OGC Nice |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dante · OGC Nice |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 23 |
| 8 | On target | 15 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | OGC Nice |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 115.00 |
| 146.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1620.23 | 1669.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 54.73 | -18.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| league points | 47.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -0.37 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 27.28 |
| state index | 0.96 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.13 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.35 |