← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Stinat
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Reims win | 22% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Olympique Lyonnais −1 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 72% | 55% | 1.34 | fair |
| Under | 28% | 45% | 3.50 | value: +58% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ (og) | Emmanuel Agbadou · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 9' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 54' | 🟥 | Emmanuel Agbadou · Reims |
| 75' | 🟨 | Fallou Fall · Reims |
| 80' | 🟨 | Johann Lepenant · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | ⚽ | Maxence Caqueret · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| coach days |
| 238.00 |
| 238.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1739.03 | 1646.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.10 | -32.57 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.00 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.70 |
| league points | 59.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | 0.86 |
| solidity v1 | -0.90 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 24.55 |
| state index | 0.67 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.13 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.37 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.75 | 1.47 |