← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, May 27, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Lille OSC win | 67% | 60% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 24% | 4.87 | value: +17% |
| Nantes win | 13% | 16% | 7.61 | value: +23% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nantes −1.25 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Lille OSC −1.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 49% | 1.76 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 51% | 2.17 | value: +11% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy |