← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 01:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace win | 69% | 59% | 1.42 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 26% | 5.25 | value: +35% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 12% | 16% | 8.00 | value: +26% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| RC Strasbourg Alsace +1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| ES Troyes AC +1.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 58% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 42% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.