← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 47% | 50% | 2.07 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +6% |
| Clermont win | 26% | 20% | 3.92 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Clermont −0.5 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Stade Brestois 29 −0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 54% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 46% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Neto Borges · Clermont |
| 45' | ⚽ | Franck Honorat · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 48' | ⚽ | Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 57' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steve Mounié · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lilian Brassier · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mahdi Camara · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateusz Wieteska · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Caufriez · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johan Gastien · Clermont |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Brestois 29 | Clermont |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Stade Francis-Le Blé |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 140.00 | 3976.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1635.77 | 1663.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.21 | 42.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.56 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 38.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| solidity v1 | 1.17 | 0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.99 | 28.86 |
| state index | 0.81 | 0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.71 | 1.08 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.65 |