← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 21, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: E. Wattellier
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 66% | 69% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 18% | 4.58 | fair |
| Ajaccio win | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ajaccio +1.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +1.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 40% | 1.94 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 60% | 1.96 | value: +17% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 4 |
| 2 | Shots | 13 |
| 0 | On target | 7 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand