← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sat, May 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brisard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 38% | 32% | 2.58 | fair |
| Lille OSC win | 35% | 41% | 2.82 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille +0 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Lille OSC +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 64% | 1.80 | value: +16% |
| Under | 46% | 36% | 2.11 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Jonathan Clauss · Olympique de Marseille |
| 37' | 🟨 | Leonardo Balerdi · Olympique de Marseille |
| 50' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonathan David · Lille OSC |
| 55' | 🟨 | Valentin Rongier · Olympique de Marseille |
| 57' | 🟨 | Benjamin André · Lille OSC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jonathan Bamba · Lille OSC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mohamed Bayo · Lille OSC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lille OSC | Olympique de Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Decathlon Arena – Stade Pierre-Mauroy |
| 1.00 |
| coach days | 353.00 | 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1784.87 | 1857.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.11 | 9.29 |
| eye test v1 | 0.95 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.73 |
| league points | 60.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 6.16 | 6.01 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 12.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 19.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.98 | 1.12 |
| solidity v1 | 0.99 | 1.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.36 | 28.66 |
| state index | 1.01 | 1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.84 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.03 | 0.60 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.93 |