← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique de Marseille win | 83% | 86% | 1.15 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 9% | 8.96 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 6% | 5% | 19.90 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Angers SCO −2.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Olympique de Marseille −2.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 70% | 1.39 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Niane · Angers SCO |
| 28' | ⚽ | Abdallah Sima · Angers SCO |
| 33' | 🟨 | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 34' | ⚽ | Alexis Sánchez · Olympique de Marseille |
| 48' | ⚽ | Dimitri Payet · Olympique de Marseille |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Veretout · Olympique de Marseille |
| 85' | 🟨 | Nuno Tavares · Olympique de Marseille |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 4 |
| 6 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique de Marseille | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Orange Vélodrome |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 317.00 | 74.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 1.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1854.94 | 1466.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.13 | 3.52 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.90 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.53 |
| league points | 70.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 7.99 | 7.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.06 | 0.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.49 |
| solidity v1 | 1.11 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 25.72 |
| state index | 1.07 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.47 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.70 | 1.76 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.66 | 0.95 |