← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Vernice
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier win | 49% | 55% | 1.95 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.67 | fair |
| FC Lorient win | 24% | 18% | 4.17 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient −0.5 | 50% | 1.98 |
| Montpellier −0.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 45% | 1.95 | fair |
| Over | 50% | 55% | 1.97 | value: +9% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Bamo Meïté · FC Lorient |
| 33' | 🟨 | Jordan Ferri · Montpellier |
| 38' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 68' | ⚽ | Romain Faivre · FC Lorient |
| 71' | 🟨 | Enzo Le Fée · FC Lorient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 90' | ⚽ | Faitout Maouassa · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 20 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | FC Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 102.00 |
| 347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1603.72 | 1605.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.44 | 21.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.40 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 43.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.40 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 34.80 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.08 |
| solidity v1 | -1.24 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.54 |
| state index | 0.41 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.94 | 1.47 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.03 |