← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 14, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 50% | 49% | 1.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.91 | fair |
| Clermont win | 25% | 25% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais +0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Clermont +0.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 53% | 1.70 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 47% | 2.27 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 29' | 🟨 | Florent Ogier · Clermont |
| 65' | ⚽ | Grejohn Kyei · Clermont |
| 73' | 🟨 | Castello Lukeba · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 84' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 90' | 🟨 | Elbasan Rashani · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Komnen Andrić · Clermont |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Lopes · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Clermont | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stade Gabriel Montpied |
| coach days |
| 3969.00 |
| 225.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1593.87 | 1738.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.25 | 25.41 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.68 |
| league points | 50.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 6.92 | 6.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.94 |
| solidity v1 | 1.01 | -0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 26.77 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.81 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.72 | 1.62 |