← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Fri, May 12, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Pignard
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Lens win | 60% | 67% | 1.61 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.49 | fair |
| Reims win | 18% | 14% | 5.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Reims −1 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Racing Club de Lens −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 56% | 1.63 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 44% | 2.42 | value: +6% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟥 | Kevin Danso · Racing Club de Lens |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Folarin Balogun · Reims |
| 37' | 🟨 | Yunis Abdelhamid · Reims |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 52' | 🟨 | Przemysław Frankowski · Racing Club de Lens |
| 55' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Racing Club de Lens |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alexis Flips · Reims |
| 74' | 🟨 | Folarin Balogun · Reims |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 0 | Corners | 14 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Racing Club de Lens | Reims |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade Bollaert-Delelis |
| coach days | 1167.00 | 223.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 1.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1855.90 | 1718.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.20 | -39.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| league points | 72.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.12 | 1.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.12 | 0.76 |
| solidity v1 | 0.67 | -0.53 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.35 | 25.42 |
| state index | 1.29 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.24 | 1.62 |