← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 7, 03:05 PM UTC · ref: B. Dechepy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais win | 56% | 54% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.40 | value: +15% |
| Montpellier win | 21% | 19% | 4.66 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Olympique Lyonnais −0.75 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Montpellier −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 59% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 41% | 2.42 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 40' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 41' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 54' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 55' | ⚽ | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 59' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dejan Lovren · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 82' | ⚽ | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
| 89' | 🟨 | Falaye Sacko · Montpellier |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christopher Jullien |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Olympique Lyonnais | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Groupama Stadium |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexandre Lacazette · Olympique Lyonnais |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 218.00 |
| 95.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1733.42 | 1608.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.35 | 34.36 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.20 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.80 |
| league points | 53.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 8.84 | 7.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.47 |
| solidity v1 | -0.09 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.00 | 25.25 |
| state index | 0.90 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.73 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.72 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.47 |