← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, May 7, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Millot
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient win | 38% | 39% | 2.64 | fair |
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 33% | 31% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Lorient +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Stade Brestois 29 +0 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 56% | 1.66 | fair |
| Over | 41% | 44% | 2.34 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jean-Kévin Duverne · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Kone · FC Lorient |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pierre Lees Melou · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Romain Del Castillo · Stade Brestois 29 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Darlin Yongwa · FC Lorient |
| 89' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jean-Victor Makengo · FC Lorient |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 15 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 22 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Lorient | Stade Brestois 29 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir |
| coach days |
| 340.00 |
| 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1597.45 | 1575.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.96 | 45.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | -0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.90 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| league points | 48.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.21 |
| solidity v1 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 28.93 |
| state index | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.49 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.41 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.10 |