← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 01:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| OGC Nice win | 57% | 59% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.16 | fair |
| ES Troyes AC win | 19% | 20% | 5.25 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| OGC Nice +0.75 | 53% | 1.88 |
| ES Troyes AC +0.75 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 64% | 1.78 | value: +14% |
| Under | 45% | 36% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 29 |
| 6 | On target | 13 |
| 3 | Corners | 14 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.