⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Stade Rennais FC 1901 4–2 Angers SCO

← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Stade Rennais FC 1901 win74%76%1.32fair
Draw17%16%5.85fair
Angers SCO win9%8%11.00fair

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1.551%1.94
Angers SCO −1.549%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysModel saysBest priceVerdict
Over59%57%1.64fair
Under41%43%2.40fair

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽ (pen)Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO
23'🟨Cédric Hountondji · Angers SCO
25'⚽Amine Gouiri · Stade Rennais FC 1901
35'⚽ (og)Cédric Hountondji · Stade Rennais FC 1901
42'⚽Ibrahima Niane · Angers SCO
54'⚽Jérémy Doku · Stade Rennais FC 1901
66'🟨Christopher Wooh · Stade Rennais FC 1901
69'🟨Sada Thioub · Angers SCO
84'⚽Jérémy Doku · Stade Rennais FC 1901

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score2
13Shots4
4On target2
7Corners5
14Fouls11
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricStade Rennais FC 1901Angers SCO
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.290.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.47
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.670.65
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueRoazhon Park
coach days
790.00
60.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.205.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.781.34
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.14
dominance (last 5)0.550.40
elo1726.391412.66
elo momentum (last 5)-1.5314.05
eye test v10.23-0.08
eye trend v10.240.40
first sub minute (last 10)54.5056.70
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.450.10
keeper form v1—0.58
league points53.0014.00
league rank7.0020.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet1.002.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.4083.60
possession avg (last 5)51.6041.00
rest days6.918.75
scorer concentration0.220.20
season ppg1.660.44
shot diff avg (last 5)2.80-3.00
shots for avg (last 5)14.009.20
skill v10.70-0.32
solidity v10.53-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)3.604.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.00
squad age25.6522.81
state index0.67-0.63
sterile dominance v10.16-0.22
threat rate (last 10)0.270.24
threat rate (last 3)0.320.28
threat rate (last 5)0.280.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.20
xg against avg (last 5)1.121.68
xg for avg (last 5)1.570.87