← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 30, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Batta
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 74% | 76% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 16% | 5.85 | fair |
| Angers SCO win | 9% | 8% | 11.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 −1.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Angers SCO −1.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 57% | 1.64 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 43% | 2.40 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil Bentaleb · Angers SCO |
| 23' | 🟨 | Cédric Hountondji · Angers SCO |
| 25' | ⚽ | Amine Gouiri · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 35' | ⚽ (og) | Cédric Hountondji · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Niane · Angers SCO |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Christopher Wooh · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sada Thioub · Angers SCO |
| 84' | ⚽ | Jérémy Doku · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stade Rennais FC 1901 | Angers SCO |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Roazhon Park |
| coach days |
| 790.00 |
| 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 1.34 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1726.39 | 1412.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.53 | 14.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.58 |
| league points | 53.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.91 | 8.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | -0.32 |
| solidity v1 | 0.53 | -0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.65 | 22.81 |
| state index | 0.67 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.12 | 1.68 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 0.87 |