← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 23, 03:05 PM UTC · ref: R. Buquet
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 win | 41% | 38% | 2.35 | fair |
| Montpellier win | 29% | 32% | 3.44 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Montpellier +0.25 | 51% | 1.95 |
| Stade Rennais FC 1901 +0.25 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 53% | 1.78 | fair |
| Over | 45% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Boubakar Kouyaté · Montpellier |
| 53' | 🟥 | Teji Savanier · Montpellier |
| 55' | 🟨 | Elye Wahi · Montpellier |
| 55' | 🟨 | Arthur Theate · Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
| 56' | 🟨 | Wahbi Khazri · Montpellier |
| 84' | ⚽ | Stephy Mavididi · Montpellier |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Montpellier | Stade Rennais FC 1901 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stade de la Mosson |
| coach days |
| 81.00 |
| 783.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1565.50 | 1739.56 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.51 | 7.65 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 37.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 7.17 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | 0.57 |
| solidity v1 | -0.44 | 0.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 25.41 |
| state index | 0.18 | 0.74 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.53 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.44 |