← Ligue 1 2022-23 · Sun, Apr 23, 01:00 PM UTC
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Nantes win | 64% | 55% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.64 | value: +14% |
| ES Troyes AC win | 14% | 20% | 7.04 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Nantes −1 | 54% | 1.83 |
| ES Troyes AC −1 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.74 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.21 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 13 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.